Thursday, October 22, 2009

Facts are terrible things

Mortality due to Influenza in the United States--An Annualized Regression Approach Using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data -- Dushoff et al. 163 (2): 181 -- American Journal of Epidemiology
The regression model attributes an annual average of 41,400 (95% confidence interval: 27,100, 55,700) deaths to influenza over the period 1979–2001.
It seems that the "one in a million: cheerleader disabled after flu shot" video has now gone viral (pardon the pun).

I am not a big believer in getting a shot for its own sake but if you are at higher than average risk of getting and passing on the flu (retail sales for instance) or if you are at a higher than average risk for a negative outcome if you do get it (compromised immune system, very young, very old, previous history of pneumonia, etc) then you should take the above number into account.

Yes, you read that right. 40,000 deaths every year due to flu in the USA. Do the math, then make your decision, but don't make your decision based on one video no matter how sad it makes you.

Offered in the interest of fighting innumeracy.

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